Created by the Value Team at Schroders, the Value Perspective podcast takes a look at decision making in complex and uncertain environments.
Episodes
Monday Sep 14, 2020
Monday Sep 14, 2020
In this episode, Juan and Andy speak with Taylor Pearson, a fund manager with a particular interest in creating research-backed systems to make decisions in an uncertain world, thus making people more ‘antifragile’.
One of these systems included ergodicity which can be explained as a scenario where the average outcome of the group is the same as the average outcome of the individual over time. An example of an ergodic systems would be the outcomes of a coin toss (heads/tails). If 100 people flip a coin once or 1 person flips a coin 100 times, you get the same outcome. Taylor discusses how this theory can help people make decisions in uncertain environments.
Minutes:
01:10 Intro to Taylor
01:35 Notable days in history and their volatility
03:59 How do you define risk?
05:43 What is ergodicity?
08:23 Where is ergodicity relevant in our everyday life?
16:42 What is the best advice to give someone who may be succumbing to non-ergodic systems?
18:53 How does ergodicity apply in stock market scenarios?
23:53 How does diversification play a part?
26:25 Does diversification need to be oppositional?
29:52 How do you communicate probability in a way clients easily understand?
31:45 The Kelly Criterion: utilising a theory to size your decisions
34:36 An example of a bad decision
36:08 Book Recommendations – The Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin and The Origins of Political Order by Francis Fukuyama
NEW EPISODES:
You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast players.
GET IN TOUCH:
send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam
Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only.
This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data.
Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds.
The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.
Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.