Created by the Value Team at Schroders, the Value Perspective podcast takes a look at decision making in complex and uncertain environments.
Episodes
Monday Aug 16, 2021
Monday Aug 16, 2021
Juan and Roberta welcome Andrew Elliott onto the podcast. Andrew, an actuary and author, specialises in how we use numbers to create benchmarks that allow us to process and contextualise different scenarios.
We start out with a quiz to see how good the Value Team is at estimating the world around them and then we move on to discus how to create benchmarks, see how the relationship between words and numbers shapes our perceptions and how difficult it is to communicate probabilities.
Feel free to test yourself on Andrew’s website: Isthatabignumber.com
Episode Minutes:
1:05 Intro
2:20 Andrew’s background
7:19 Andrew quizzes the Value Team
13:10 The Value Team quizzes Andrew
15:37 How a base level of benchmarks can help you create accurate ranges when making estimated guesses
20:52 Building out your mental models to create more confident conclusions
22:55 The links between numbers and words - why do words matter so much when they’re not very precise?
27:50 Where does the word benchmark come from?
28:45 Why do human beings struggle so much with big numbers and what tools can we develop to better handle them?
34:34 The use of the average: are they misleading?
39:20 How can this apply to insurmountably large problems like climate change?
43:39 How do we get people to understand the role that luck plays in everyday life?
49:14 Two notable chances
53:32 Book Recommendations and a time when a poor outcome came through poor process, not bad luck
Book recommendations:
Is that a big number? By Andrew Elliot
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling
The First Scientist: Anaximander and His Legacy by Carlo Rovelli
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